Australian Bureau of Statistics livestock slaughter data was released today for the June quarter and it shows that the pace of the herd rebuild is stalling somewhat. The female slaughter ratio (FSR), which is a measure of female cattle slaughter as a proportion of total slaughter, moved up from 45.6% in the March quarter to hit 48% for the June quarter.
Thomas Elder Markets modelling and weekly slaughter data releases from Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) had suggested that the FSR was going to come in close to 42-43%, but as our earlier analysis shows the TEM modelling can sometimes lead the actual FSR level by up to 3-6 months.
The crucial level that suggests if the herd is in rebuild or liquidation is 47%. Based on the annual average FSR for 2021 we are now sitting at 46.8%, marginally in rebuild territory. All eyes are now on the September quarter slaughter figures to see if we can move closer to the low 40s in the FSR, which would signal a stronger rebuild is underway.