Since TEM launched, we have been sceptical of the Chinese pork herd rebuild after the disaster caused by African Swine Fever (ASF).
Most beef and sheep producers might think, why is this important to us? It is down to the protein gap left by the eradication of large swathes of the pig herd (Read: Aporkcalypse now). This has meant that protein has been in great demand globally and part of the reason for our high prices. This assisted even during the destocking phase of the recent drought.
In March, China imported a record volume of pork meat (460kmt), the previous record (440kmt) was reached only in December. At the end of March, Chinese pork imports are up 210kmt at the same time last year. A sign that the rebuild may not be as effective as government sources would indicate.
To read our reasoning behind our scepticism read the following articles:
Demand in China remains strong, and this is good news for the protein market. Whilst the Chinese herd will recover, resurgent outbreaks of ASF will slow this process.
Conflict Disclaimer: Please note Andrew Whitelaw and Matt Dalgleish operate a commercial piggery in Victoria, Australia
Read our analysis independence charter here