Getting on my goat

Livestock | 25th November 2020 | By Matt Dalgleish

The Snapshot

  • Historically OTH goat prices have averaged a 45% discount to the Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator (ESTLI). In recent years this discount has narrowed to on par prices.
  • This season both the ESTLI and the OTH goats price have averaged 820 c/kg cwt.
  • Price correlations between the ESTLI and OTH goat prices have shown very strong coefficients of 0.9 on absolute price levels and nearly 0.5 on annual average price changes.
  • Forecast modelling shows an annual average price above 800c/kg is likely for the 2021 season.

The Detail

A TEM subscriber queried us this morning on goat forecast modelling and while it is a fairly uncommon request to look at goats we were more than happy to generate a few approximate numbers based on our lamb price fair value model and the historic relationship between lamb and goat prices.

The annual average OTH goat price hasn’t always followed the pattern set by the Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator (ESTLI) but in recent years the price action has started to more closely mirror each other. Notably, in the last few years the discount between the ESTLI and OTH goat prices has narrowed significantly such that the annual average price for both categories of stock during the 2020 season is around 820c/kg cwt.

Historically, the OTH discount to the ESTLI averaged about 45%. However, since 2015 this discount began to narrow. Indeed, in 2019 OTH goats averaged a 3% premium to the ESTLI. This season prices are on a par.

Taking a look at the annual average price correlation since 2009 we can see that the ESTLI and OTH goats have a very strong price correlation with a co-efficient of 0.9099. Although from a statistical standpoint it is a more robust method to measure the correlation based on annual price changes rather than absolute price.

Analysis of the correlation based on annual price change between the ESTLI and OTH goat prices shows a co-efficient of 0.4874, which still represents a fairly strong price movement correlation and enough of a correlation to allow us to use our ESTLI fair value modelling forecast prices to get an idea of what is in stall for goat markets.

It can take many days to create a fair value forecast model for a commodity so we have used a bit of a quick cheat method to get some back of the envelope forecasts for OTH goat for the coming few years, based on our ESTLI modelling undertaken previously.

The annual average OTH goat price model outlines an optimistic and pessimistic view for the coming seasons with a 900c/kg average annual price potential for 2021 should the global recovery from Covid-19 go well, or a 800c/kg outcome if the recovery takes a little longer.

 

Projecting further out, the 2022 season has a potential range of 750-850 c/kg and 2023 eases towards 725-825c/kg cwt.

Tags

  • Goat
  • Modelling
  • Forecast