ABARES, the national forecaster, released their September update overnight. There weren’t many surprises in the data, so here are the headlines:
The points below show the change between the June and September update. On a national basis, there were huge revisions upwards since the June update.
- Wheat 17% / 4.8mmt
- Barley 20% / 2.1mmt
- Canola 20% / 826kmt
- Chickpeas 15% / 111kmt
- Lentils 9% / 51kmt
- Oats -2% / -32kmt
The forecast for the coming crop places wheat production at the second-highest level, the first being last year. The production is expected to hit 32.6mmt.
Canola is also set to hit new heights, with 5mmt breached for the first time in record. This is a result of both strong yields and the third-largest plantings.
Despite the issues around the export market of barley, production is set to hit 12.4mmt, the third-largest production year. Whilst China is out of the picture for the foreseeable future, the reality is that growers ignored this and continued planting. The area planted is the fourth highest. At the end of this season, barley stocks are expected to be strong in Australia. Hopefully, global supply remains constrained through 2022 to offload our stocks and new crop.
Overall the picture is strong for Australian agriculture, with a strong production forecast, with grain and oilseed prices which are very attractive. Let’s hope for a pleasant finish!
It is important to note that the data released by ABARES is completely current and has been assembled over recent weeks. The data is unlikely to take into account any of the recent frosts in WA (see Jack Frost strikes at WA crop)