SovEcon, a leading Black Sea agricultural markets research firm, has upped the Russian wheat crop forecast by 0.2 mmt to 75.6 mmt. This reflects good yields in Siberia, which partly offsets poor crop numbers in other regions we’ve seen this year.
The biggest spring wheat grower, Siberia reports good yields of around 2 mt/ha (+18% YOY). The region is the largest grower of spring wheat in Russia, with a total wheat area of 5.6 mln ha. SovEcon expects Siberia to harvest 10.7 mmt of wheat this year (+1 mmt YOY), the highest number in 12 years.
Siberia was fortunate to get ample precipitation in the second half of the summer, which converted into good / record-high yields while the nearby Urals or Kazakhstan suffered from drought. Siberia and the Russian South located a thousand kilometres away are harvesting bumper crops this year; many regions between them were close to disaster.
USDA estimates Russian wheat crop at 72.5 mmt. Russia is #1 world wheat exporter.
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