Our antipodean cousins in Argentina are doing it tough at the moment. They are experiencing a dry spell which has knocked back expectations for the coming crop. The Rosario grain exchange has taken off 3mmt since their previous forecast, dropping the crop to approx. 18.5mmt
On average, over the past decade, Argentina has contributed around 5% of the global wheat trade, with most going into Brazil.
One of the top growing areas in Argentina is Cordoba. I have pulled the data for this region to give an insight into the weather conditions in Argentina.
As we can see the middle of the year is typically the driest point. This year the Cordoba district has recorded next to no rain since May.
Developing a market view is about weighing up all the positives and negatives to see which way the scales balance. The deteriorating conditions in Argentina are another that can be added to the bullish side.